In its 2022 critical minerals list, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) included lithium as one of 50 mineral commodities critical to the U.S. economy and national security, underscoring its use in rechargeable batteries.
Although some say the U.S. has plenty of lithium available, burdensome regulations and a confusing legal landscape make effective extraction and processing a challenge. As a result, America is highly dependent on other countries — like China — and vulnerable in its need to secure an adequate lithium supply.
But the good news is that the U.S. has a number of initiatives at play to address its critical minerals vulnerabilities — including several specifically focused on lithium.
And if a newly discovered lithium bonanza can be optimized, America may just elbow out the competition to become a lithium leader.
Global lithium dynamics
In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) described some of the big-picture dynamics involved. An Executive Summary of the report said that in 2023, global lithium demand increased by 30%, largely driven by clean energy applications — including electric vehicles (EVs), which “consolidated their position as the largest consuming segment for lithium…”
Among the many highlights of the report, the IEA underscored the fact that although mining has expanded in various regions, China dominates the refining of critical minerals.
“Nearly 50% of the market value from refining is concentrated in China by 2030,” the agency said. “China also sees a rise in market value for mined materials with its growing copper and lithium production.”
The IEA said just a handful of countries dominate the critical minerals supply chain — and the U.S. isn’t one of them.
“Between now and 2030, some 70-75% of projected supply growth for refined lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements comes from today’s top three producers,” the agency said.
However, the IEA also noted that the “concentration in the mining sector looks different if viewed through the lens of asset ownership, with US and European companies playing a major role for copper and lithium supplies …”
USGS uncovers lithium treasure trove
Speaking of U.S. lithium supplies…
On October 21, the USGS announced the results of a study it had conducted that revealed an estimated 5 to 19 million tons of lithium reserves located beneath southwestern Arkansas.
“If commercially recoverable, the amount of lithium present would meet projected 2030 world demand for lithium in car batteries nine times over,” USGS said.
The study’s novel methodology — which combined water testing and machine learning — was conducted collaboratively by the USGS and the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment’s Office of the State Geologist.
This unique approach “made it possible to quantify the amount of lithium present in brines located in a geological unit known as the Smackover Formation,” USGS said. “Extracting lithium from brines co-produced during oil and gas operations provides an opportunity to extract a valuable commodity from what would otherwise be considered a waste stream.”
“Lithium is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and the potential for increased U.S. production to replace imports has implications for employment, manufacturing and supply-chain resilience. …” said David Applegate, USGS Director.
The agency describes the Smackover Formation as a “relic of an ancient sea that left an extensive, porous, and permeable limestone geologic unit” that extends under multiple states — including parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida. In addition to its rich deposits of oil and bromine, USGS says the Smackover Formation has also gained attention in recent years for “potential lithium in brines,” which are described as “high-salinity waters associated with deep salt deposits.”
“Our research was able to estimate total lithium present in the southwestern portion of the Smackover in Arkansas for the first time,” said Katherine Knierim, a hydrologist and the study’s principal researcher. “We estimate there is enough dissolved lithium present in that region to replace U.S. imports of lithium and more.”
However, Knierim also cautioned that the estimates are based on an “in-place assessment.”
“We have not estimated what is technically recoverable based on newer methods to extract lithium from brines,” she said.
Noting that the U.S. relies on imports to meet over 25% of its lithium needs, USGS estimates there is “enough lithium brought to the surface in the oil and brine waste streams in southern Arkansas to cover current estimated U.S. lithium consumption,” and that the “low-end estimate of 5 million tons of lithium present in Smackover brines is also equivalent to more than nine times the International Energy Agency’s projection of global lithium demand for electric vehicles in 2030.”
The study, which was published in Science Advances, can be found at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adp8149.
The complexities of lithium mining
As Knierim noted, finding that potential lithium cache doesn’t mean it can be effectively recovered.
In a resource published November 29, “From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects,” USGS authors underscore the “recent controversy” about whether available lithium supply will be able to keep up with the rapidly growing demand.
“Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines,” the authors write in the study’s abstract. “From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project.”
Underscoring the complex nature of this process, they say that “even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments.”
To better understand factors that influence lithium mining projects, the researchers conducted a study, which evaluated “a comprehensive database of lithium mining projects and their histories” from 2004 to 2022.
Citing various studies, here are just a few of the insights the authors provided:
- “Overall, decision-making throughout the mining life cycle is a complex, iterative, data- and market-driven process.”
- “Despite the almost universal use of these structured frameworks, the timelines of individual mining projects vary widely, from a few years to decades.”
- “… not all discoveries become mines.”
- “This apparent randomness is thought to be due to the complex interplay of a variety of factors, both internal and external to individual projects …”
- “Internal factors are associated with features like grade distributions, adequacy of the ore body models, and technical mining specifications, including ground conditions, equipment capacity, workforce considerations, and management decisions.”
- “External factors, on the other hand, comprise commodity prices, national regulatory frameworks, political and country-specific risks, local community relations, and environmental conditions …”
For additional details, please see the full study.
