The 2024 holiday shopping season is upon us, which means that in addition to the sudden appearance of decorations and holiday tunes — reports about holiday shopping trends abound. Although specific data points may vary, a common denominator is that past and present inflation will play a key role. As a result, shoppers will be hunting for bargains and adjusting their holiday shopping strategies accordingly.
Here, we’ll take a peek at what several surveys indicate about shopping expectations for the days and weeks ahead.
Manhattan Associates: 2024 Supply Chain Confidence Survey
On October 10, Manhattan Associates — which describes itself as “a global technology leader in supply chain and omnichannel commerce” — released the results of its
2024 Supply Chain Confidence Survey. Conducted in September 2024, the survey polled 250 executives in retail, 250 in supply chain logistics, and 500 consumers to better understand their “confidence and concerns” regarding the holiday season.
“…the survey revealed consumer worries over the inflated cost of gifts and the retail industry’s corresponding moves,” the announcement said. “Shoppers are feeling economic pressures this holiday season, with 85% citing inflation and increased prices as a top concern. In response, nearly 61% of supply chain leaders reported having invested in new technologies and processes to run more efficiently and reduce overall costs this season.”
Referencing the “high price of holiday cheer,” Manhattan Associates said that in addition to the 85% of consumers worried about inflation, 70% of retailers are also “anticipating higher holiday costs.” For consumers, that concern means many are cutting back — with 64% of consumers reducing their spending on non-essential goods and 52% making deals and discounts top priorities for which they’re willing to wait.
According to the report, supply chain leaders and retailers are responding to inflation’s pinch by “leveraging new technologies, streamlining operations, and implementing strategic measures to optimize operations and reduce costs.”
Additionally:
- 44% of retailers are relying on increased efficiency to help them reduce seasonal hiring.
- 58% of supply chain leaders plan to boost their workforce to manage “peak omnichannel demand.”
- 35% say they’ll be implementing the latest automation technologies to “hedge against rising costs.”
- 42% will be relying on automation to “manage last-minute order surges.”
- Almost 70% plan to offer increased sales and discounts.
- 56% will offer discounts through loyalty programs.
- 34% plan to offer flexible payment options.
The survey also found that 80% of retail and supply chain leaders “see AI as a solution and are leveraging AI tools to improve inventory management, demand forecasting, and customer service this holiday season.”
When it comes to fulfillment, consumers expressed confidence in retailers’ delivery capabilities and are prioritizing cost-effectiveness over speed.
“While timely delivery certainly remains important, consumers care more about knowing the precise location and ETA of their orders over fastest delivery options,” Manhattan Associates said.
Along the same lines, retailers and supply chain leaders expressed confidence, too:
- 92% of retail leaders “feel assured in their fulfillment capabilities.”
- 87% of supply chain leaders “are prepared for potential disruptions.”
- 87% of retailers have also taken “steps to keep shelves stocked with trending and high-demand products.”
And all of that is a good thing — since Manhattan Associates says holiday shopping will start early.
“With only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, this holiday shopping season is shorter than normal, prompting consumers to act quickly,” the firm said. “The compressed timeframe means shoppers are avoiding the last-minute shopping spree.”
“This is a unique holiday season in many respects, but retail and supply chain leaders seem prepared for the challenge and look confident in their ability to meet consumer expectations,” said Ann Sung Ruckstuhl, SVP and Chief Marketing Officer of Manhattan Associates. “The importance of an agile and nimble supply chain is evident, and deploying the right technology is more critical than ever before. The key to matching consumer expectations and giving shoppers the memorable experience they demand is to tighten the back end, have complete insight into every part of the product’s journey, and truly embrace a unified commerce approach in order to succeed.”
NRF: Robust October sales and a record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend
In a November 15 announcement, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said robust sales data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau spells good news for holiday shopping trends: “… overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year.”
“October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year,” the organization said, also predicting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will “increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.”
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
And in an announcement released the day before, the NRF said that according to its annual survey, Thanksgiving weekend will be big for holiday shopping this year with a record 183.4 million people planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday.
“Even though holiday shopping continues to pull forward, some of the busiest shopping days of the year are during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “Consumers are prioritizing gift-giving for the most important people in their lives, and retailers are prepared to help customers find everything on their shopping lists at great prices throughout the season.”
Several of the survey’s data points reflect expected consumer trends during this time:
- Top reasons to shop during this five-day period? Great deals (57%), tradition (28%) and time preference: 24% said they “like to start holiday shopping over Thanksgiving weekend.”
- Within that period, Black Friday is favored the most, with 72% (131.7 million) planning to step into stores or shop online that day. Among them, 65% “expect to specifically shop in stores that day.”
- The second most popular day? Cyber Monday, with 39% (72.3 million) planning to shop.
“Younger shoppers are most likely to take advantage of Thanksgiving weekend deals this year, with 89% of young adults between 18-24 planning to shop over the weekend,” Prosper Insights & Analytics Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “The social aspect of holiday shopping is also enticing to this age group, and they are most likely to shop because it’s a group activity that can be enjoyed with friends and family (20%).”
Snipp 2024 Holiday Survey
Also on November 14, global marketing solutions company Snipp released the results of its 2024 Holiday Survey, which revealed “three emerging trends” for retailers to keep in mind this season:
- Shoppers’ cautious spending plans
- A focus on discounts
- An increasing shift toward experiential spending
Cautious spending
In its poll of 299 U.S-based consumers, Snipp found that:
- 97% report that “the cost of living impacts their holiday shopping plans, with 65% saying it influences them ‘extremely’ or ‘significantly.’”
- 81% plan to “cut back on holiday shopping compared to last year, with 38% stating they will cut back ‘extremely.’”
“The categories most likely to be impacted include electronics (53%), health & beauty (45%), and toys (44%), with smaller declines expected in home goods (35%) and groceries (36%),” Snipp said. “This suggests that consumers are prioritizing essentials and scaling back on higher-priced gift items this year.”
A focus on discounts
Within all that cautious spending, discounts play a big role. The Snipp survey found that:
- 50% of shoppers rate discounts as the “top influencer” when it comes to holiday purchases.
- 61% of consumers said they use coupons regularly, a third (33%) always use them, and 28% frequently do.
- 76% search online for promotions, offers, loyalty programs, and coupons, while in-store promotions (52%) and social media (48%) are also key.
- 44% of consumers would rather receive promotions via email, but only 21% prefer texts, 14% in-app notifications, and 12% social media.
Experiential spending
Survey results also indicated that consumers will “cook more at home and prioritize experiences.” Among those polled:
- 45% plan to “substitute ingredients with more affordable options.”
- 43% will “cook more at home rather than dine out.”
- 42% intend to “shop at discount or budget grocery stores.”
“While inflation is prompting many to cut back and seek out discounts, the importance of experiences is growing, with many shoppers focused on creating memorable celebrations rather than splurging on goods,” Snipp said. “Retailers and CPG brands catering to this demand for value and convenience, particularly through online channels and experiential product offerings, will be well-positioned for success in the 2024 holiday season.”
