A rapidly evolving global landscape means supply chain leaders can’t afford to rest on their laurels to see what comes next. Instead, risk evaluation and preparation are key to help mitigate both major and minor disruptions for effective supply chain resilience.
The following risk reports from Everstream Analytics and interos.ai can help. Though some variances exist, the two companies agree on several — indicating the top supply chain risks for which leaders must prepare in the year ahead.
Everstream Analytics 2025 Annual Risk Report
In its report released January 8, Everstream Analytics — which touts itself as “the global leader in supply chain insights and risk analytics” — identified the five “most likely supply chain events that will impact supply chain operations this year.”
Using its “proprietary comprehensive database of supply chain disruptions,” the company says the report analyzes past events to “highlight growing trends, build projections and uncover this year’s biggest supply chain threats and most vulnerable industries,” and assigns a risk score metric to help prioritize planning and mitigation efforts.
The top five identified include climate change/weather, geopolitical instability, cybercrime, rare metals/minerals, and the crackdown on forced labor.
Climate Change — 90% Risk Score
Referring to extreme weather events as a “dominant risk” to the supply chain, the report highlights two key weather concerns that are top of mind for supply chain leaders:
- Flooding: “Volatile flooding has the potential for deep disruption, and the capability to destroy nations with the most sophisticated weather warning systems and infrastructure. Companies will be upended by even more frequent small-scale events, in addition to those of a larger scale.”
- State of Ocean Temperatures: “All indications point to the state of ocean temperatures being elevated in 2025 and beyond, with the potential for record-breaking highs. This will result in more frequent and disruptive flood events.”
Geopolitical Instability with Increased Tariff Risk – 80% Risk Score
Everstream Analytics says geopolitical threats could create major disruptions to trade networks and economies around the world and cites six “major geopolitical events” that are likely to have an impact:
- Red Sea Disruptions: “Ongoing attacks on cargo and container ships continue to lead to longer transit times and equipment imbalance.”
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict: “Continued conflict in Ukraine could destabilize manufacturing and trade activities, putting European economies at further risk.”
- Taiwan Trade Risks: “Increased Chinese military drills near Taiwan could hinder trade through major sea routes, affecting global container shipping flows.”
- Middle East Tensions: “Escalating conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza are already disrupting logistics operations, risking infrastructure damage and worker shortages.”
- South China Sea Disputes: “Disputes between China and neighboring countries could result in vessel skirmishes, jeopardizing maritime trade routes.”
- Proposed Tariff Increases: “The automotive, semiconductor, and manufacturing industries are particularly at risk due to proposed tariffs by the new U.S. government as well as potential retaliatory measures by other countries.”
More Backdoors for Cybercrime – 75% Risk Score
The report cites a “growing reliance’ on AI, IoT devices and interconnected systems as a major driver for the “escalating” cybersecurity risks supply chain leaders will face in the year ahead. Those described as “most critical” — particularly for the manufacturing and electronics industries — include:
- Increased Back Door Access for Cybercrime: “Growing reliance on AI and cloud computing within supply chains is creating new ‘back door’ opportunities for bad actors. They are capitalizing on the proliferation of IoT-connected devices, coupled with the widespread use of outdated security protocols and improperly configured firewalls, providing ample entry points for cyberattacks.”
- Vulnerabilities in Sub-tier Supply Chains: “In 2025, cyberattacks will primarily arrive via sub-tier supply chains where criminals can more easily exploit common programming errors and vulnerabilities, allowing them to leapfrog into organizations via phishing, software connection links or other methods.”
- Impact on Logistics and Transportation: “Third-party logistics providers (3PLs) will be disproportionately impacted by ongoing cyber threats compared to transit hubs like cargo ports and airports.”
- Electronics Industry at Critical Risk Levels: “The electronics industry experienced a surge of vulnerabilities within its internal systems in 2024 and these are expected to continue. In the coming year, electronics companies will be particularly vulnerable to data breaches, ransomware attacks and phishing.”
Rare Metals and Minerals on Lockdown – 65% Risk Score
Citing “rising regulations, new tariffs and long-term or exclusive contracts,” the report predicts that rare minerals and metals will be “harder than ever” to obtain and at a higher cost. Key findings include:
- New Tariffs and Sanctions on Critical Metals: “Within a politically charged atmosphere between the West and the major commodity producers – China and Russia – companies will face new tariffs and sanctions on critical metals. Governments are placing renewed emphasis on the negative environmental and social impacts of mining, which will present challenges for metal producers over the coming year.”
- Concerns Over Lack of Alternative Suppliers: “China could impose broader export restrictions, highlighting the need for supply chain managers to diversify sourcing strategies. This lack of supplier diversity could complicate procurement, lead to supply shortages and could make the price of affected commodities particularly vulnerable to trade tensions and eventual tariffs or sanctions.”
Crackdown on Forced Labor – 60% Risk Score
According to the report, a “growing crackdown on forced labor across industries will increase pressure on companies who are facing scrutiny to manage and eliminate suppliers violating human rights.” As a result, related and anticipated risks include:
- Push for Alternative Suppliers: “Rising levels of concern surrounding labor conditions in China and the country’s ongoing geopolitical rivalry with the U.S. have pushed many companies to find alternative suppliers in India, Mexico and other Southeast Asian countries. However, many of these emerging economies do not have adequate laws or enforcement mechanisms for workers.”
- Increase in Legislation: “A cascade of legislation has been created that aims to address the lax forced labor issues in America, Europe, Mexico and Canada. Other countries are expected to follow suit this year, as they consider legislation or strengthening existing regulations on forced labor.”
- Challenges Remain for Agri-Food Sector: “The global concentration of commodities such as palm oil (83%) and vanilla (92%) originate from countries frequently cited for modern slavery. Companies may face challenges abiding by forced labor regulations, given the prevalence in the agri-food industry,”
“The past year has been unprecedented, with extreme weather events, heightened geopolitical tension and cybercrime destabilizing supply chains throughout the world. Navigating this year’s looming risks to build a secure supply network has never been more critical,” said Corey Rhodes, CEO Everstream Analytics. “As companies look to prepare their operations for the new year, Everstream’s Annual Risk Report gives precise insight into the top risks threatening logistics, suppliers and their networks. While some risks are unavoidable, early notice and swift action through a combination of planning, deep monitoring and mitigation can save inventory and lives in 2025.”
For the full breakdown of insights, analysis, and prescriptive recommendations from Everstream Analytics, download a copy of the 2025 Annual Risk Report, here.
interos.ai 2025 Predictions Report
In its report released January 14, interos.ai — which touts itself as “a global leader in AI-powered Supply Chain Risk Intelligence” — revealed some of the same risks as those identified by Everstream Analytics. But in addition to geopolitical instability, overall cybersecurity, trade dynamics, and climate risks, the organization also underscored one more: AI security.
“Drawing on the industry’s most comprehensive knowledge graph, interos.ai’s proprietary data and analysis, the report reveals how geopolitical tensions, cyber threats, trade restrictions, climate disruptions, and the secure use of AI will impact organizations worldwide in the coming year,” the announcement said.
According to the report, “critical risks” to global supply chains in 2025 include:
- Triple Threat to Geopolitical Stability: “Political unrest in Eastern Europe, the South China Sea, and the Red Sea could result in up to $1 trillion in economic damages, with interos.ai data showing over 481 companies in the S&P 500 directly linked to high-risk regions, especially those in agriculture, building and civil engineering, retail and computer manufacturing.”
- Cyber Attacks Go Physical: “Beyond software, emerging threats to physical infrastructure, including undersea cable disruptions and satellite hacking are ripe for exploitation by the emerging axis of adversaries.”
- Trade Wars and Rising Inflation: “President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada and inflationary pressures stand to reshape North American trade strategies, with potential cost surges passed onto consumers, including the infamous ‘$100 avocado.’ Tariffs are poised to disrupt industries like automotive, agriculture, and consumer electronics, in particular.”
- Intensified Climate Change: “Catastrophic weather events in 2025, such as hurricanes, wildfires and heatwaves, are expected to disrupt 20 million businesses and strain global supply chains.”
- Insecurity in the AI Supply Chain: “Not just hacking but AI security risks, including data poisoning and model corruption, introduce unforeseen data challenges for organizations integrating AI into their operations.”
“This risk looms larger than a CSO or a procurement problem. Supply chain risk management is a CEO dilemma,” said Ted Krantz, CEO of interos.ai. “Businesses must evolve from in-house techniques and reactive risk management to a proactive approach that prioritizes Resilience and incorporates both first party and market data perspective to fuel AI-driven actionability. …”The full 2025 Predictions Report is available here.
